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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But the latest field is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still