A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
